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《十年利率心法》的逻辑框架

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资产周期轮动的底层逻辑——?#29992;?#26519;时钟到货币信用

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《十年利率心法》可以分为三大部分,六大章节,章节逻辑上有着完整而严谨的体系设?#30130;?#23618;层递进,环环相扣,相信完整学习的你能够体会其中深意。

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利率体系是基础,资产配置是实践,利率周期的起伏是驱动大类资产轮动的核心驱动力,?#21069;?#25569;不同周期下投资机遇的密码。

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《十年利率体系》的上半部分着眼于中国利率体系的基础知识,通过详?#20184;?#23436;整的介绍,旨在帮助投资者建立一套利率的综合分析框架

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《十年利率体系》的下半部分则着眼于资产轮动和资产配置,如果说利率体系理论基础,那么资产配置就是投资实践

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如何把握不同周期下的最优投资配置机会,提高资产配置的收益和效率,相信是每一位市场投资人最为关心的核心议题!

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2月21日,东方通信走出九天?#31246;?#30340;行情,四个月涨了7倍,你觉得还有几个板?

\n

PS:本投票及讨论仅作娱乐,请勿作为投资参考

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微信信用卡还款收费数月之后,支付宝也推出类似新规。

\n

2月21日,支付宝对外发布公告表示,为了?#20013;?#21521;用户提供更优质服务,自3月26日起,通过支付宝给信用卡还款将收取服务?#36873;?其中,通过支付宝还款超2000元将收费,超出2000元部分按照0.1%收取服务?#36873;?#22914;果用户需要提升自己的免?#35759;?#24230;,可?#37213;?#36807;支付宝会员积分进行?#19968;弧?/p>\n

互联网服务的收费时代在悄然降临,“花呗们”即将消灭信用卡?谈谈你的看法

\n

?

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2月20日,三星率先发布折叠屏手机 Galaxy Fold,起售价为 1980 美元(约合 13377 元人民币),拥有 4 种配色,将分别将推出 LTE 版和 5G 版,预计于 4 月 26 日开售。

\n

Galaxy Fold 搭载了 7.3 英寸可折叠 Dynamic AMOLED 显示屏(屏幕比例为 4.2:3),折叠状态下,外面的 4.6 英寸 Super AMOLED 副屏(屏幕比例为 21:9)可以使用常用的 app,展开之后该 app 会在当前位置无缝切换,自动适配大屏幕。

\n

\n

展开时,最多支持 3 个 app 同时开启,Galaxy Fold 搭载 7nm 制程的 SoC(可能是骁龙 855 或 Exynos 9820),内置 12GB RAM + 512GB ROM(UFS 3.0),不支持 micro SD 卡扩展,配备 4380mAh 电池。Galaxy Fold 还支持无线充电。共搭载了 6 枚摄像头,其中后置 3 枚摄像头(主摄像头 + 长焦 + 广?#29301;?#20027;摄像头为 1200 万像素。

\n

\n

\n

人民币一万三的起售价可?#36816;?#26159;较高的,此前?#36824;?#24050;经在为iPhone定价过高的问题上遭遇了不少销售阻碍,你认为三星的定价策略是在重蹈?#36824;?#35206;辙吗?

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COMEX 4月黄金期货收跌1.5%,报1327.80美元/盎司,创2018年8月份以来最大单日跌幅。

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现货黄金跌幅扩大至1%,报1325.66美元/盎司,为2月19日以来最低点。

\n","content_more":"","content_text":"现货黄金跌幅扩大至1%,报1325.66美元/盎司,为2月19日以来最低点。\n","display_time":1550773337,"global_channel_name":"7x24快讯","global_more_uri":"wscn://www.1740749.com/live","id":1455578,"image_uris":["https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/ce77823a-e496-42ea-94ba-23b080789eca.png"],"is_calendar":false,"is_favourite":false,"is_priced":false,"reference":"","related_themes":null,"score":2,"symbols":[],"tags":[],"title":""},{"article":null,"author":{"id":694840,"display_name":"wBlake","image":"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/bc3971d4-2d62-4d54-b1dd-7058c60c6ffa","uri":"http://www.1740749.com/authors/694840"},"channels":["global-channel","forex-channel","goldc-channel","oil-channel","us-stock-channel","mechanism_test"],"content":"

美元兑加元在加拿大央行行长谈及利率政策之际跳水,短线下挫27点,最低触及1.3169,逼近日低1.3161。

\n","content_more":"","content_text":"美元兑加元在加拿大央行行长谈及利率政策之际跳水,短线下挫27点,最低触及1.3169,逼近日低1.3161。\n","display_time":1550771161,"global_channel_name":"7x24快讯","global_more_uri":"wscn://www.1740749.com/live","id":1455562,"image_uris":["https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/660f8703-1e92-4fd2-82ec-804311ac91a2.png"],"is_calendar":false,"is_favourite":false,"is_priced":false,"reference":"","related_themes":null,"score":2,"symbols":[],"tags":[],"title":""},{"article":null,"author":{"id":694840,"display_name":"wBlake","image":"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/bc3971d4-2d62-4d54-b1dd-7058c60c6ffa","uri":"http://www.1740749.com/authors/694840"},"channels":["global-channel","forex-channel","goldc-channel","oil-channel","us-stock-channel","mechanism_test"],"content":"

【加拿大央行行长:重返中性利率的路径的不确定性偏高】
\n加拿大央行行长Poloz:重申需要随着时间的推移而提升利率至中性区间,但其回归中性区间的道路“高度不确定”。
\n央行将在未来利?#23454;?#25972;上保持“坚定不移地依赖于数据”。
\n通?#32479;中?#20559;低,这能造成家庭债务高居不下等危险的失衡问题。
\n利率上升对债台高筑的加拿大人的影响是一个重要的不确定性,这是央行已经渐进式加息的原因之一。
\n家庭债务问题加重,意味着央行加息对于整体经济的影响将超过?#37213;?/p>\n","content_more":"","content_text":"【加拿大央行行长:重返中性利率的路径的不确定性偏高】\n加拿大央行行长Poloz:重申需要随着时间的推移而提升利率至中性区间,但其回归中性区间的道路“高度不确定”。\n央行将在未来利?#23454;?#25972;上保持“坚定不移地依赖于数据”。\n通?#32479;中?#20559;低,这能造成家庭债务高居不下等危险的失衡问题。\n利率上升对债台高筑的加拿大人的影响是一个重要的不确定性,这是央行已经渐进式加息的原因之一。\n家庭债务问题加重,意味着央行加息对于整体经济的影响将超过?#37213;n","display_time":1550771115,"global_channel_name":"7x24快讯","global_more_uri":"wscn://www.1740749.com/live","id":1455561,"image_uris":[],"is_calendar":false,"is_favourite":false,"is_priced":false,"reference":"","related_themes":null,"score":2,"symbols":[],"tags":[],"title":""},{"article":null,"author":{"id":120000002067,"display_name":"杨桂华","image":"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/3ffb4c02-4b77-4700-9089-5f17e07dc65d","uri":"http://www.1740749.com/authors/120000002067"},"channels":["global-channel","us-stock-channel"],"content":"

【特?#20272;璏odel 3丧失消费者报告的推荐】特?#20272;?#32929;价短线下挫,目前下跌1.3%;此前,该公司的Model 3丧失美国?#26029;?#36153;者报告》的推荐,该?#21448;疽步?#29305;?#20272;?#21697;牌从一项受到关注的年度排名前十中剔除。?#26029;?#36153;者报告》?#30130;?#28040;费者抱怨的问题包括?#30340;?#39280;件松脱以?#23433;?#29827;有缺陷等,对Model 3的可靠?#21592;?#31034;怀疑。

\n","content_more":"","content_text":"【特?#20272;璏odel 3丧失消费者报告的推荐】特?#20272;?#32929;价短线下挫,目前下跌1.3%;此前,该公司的Model 3丧失美国?#26029;?#36153;者报告》的推荐,该?#21448;疽步?#29305;?#20272;?#21697;牌从一项受到关注的年度排名前十中剔除。?#26029;?#36153;者报告》?#30130;?#28040;费者抱怨的问题包括?#30340;?#39280;件松脱以?#23433;?#29827;有缺陷等,对Model 3的可靠?#21592;?#31034;怀疑。\n","display_time":1550770745,"global_channel_name":"7x24快讯","global_more_uri":"wscn://www.1740749.com/live","id":1455558,"image_uris":[],"is_calendar":false,"is_favourite":false,"is_priced":false,"reference":"","related_themes":null,"score":2,"symbols":[],"tags":[],"title":""},{"article":null,"author":{"id":694840,"display_name":"wBlake","image":"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/bc3971d4-2d62-4d54-b1dd-7058c60c6ffa","uri":"http://www.1740749.com/authors/694840"},"channels":["global-channel","forex-channel","goldc-channel"],"content":"

德国政府将在2月27日投票时批准延长魏德曼担任德国央行行长的合同期 ,这意味着魏德曼将获得另外八年任期。(德国商报)

\n","content_more":"","content_text":"德国政府将在2月27日投票时批准延长魏德曼担任德国央行行长的合同期 ,这意味着魏德曼将获得另外八年任期。(德国商报)\n","display_time":1550769667,"global_channel_name":"7x24快讯","global_more_uri":"wscn://www.1740749.com/live","id":1455549,"image_uris":[],"is_calendar":false,"is_favourite":false,"is_priced":false,"reference":"","related_themes":null,"score":2,"symbols":[],"tags":[],"title":""}],"next_cursor":"1550769667","op_cursor":"4111317","polling_cursor":"1455594"}},"[\"/premium/topics/carousel/mixads\",{\"accept\":\"topic\",\"order\":true,\"limit\":3}]":{"ttl":1,"value":[{"resource":{"author":{"author_intro":"管涛\n\n\n外汇管理局国际收支司前司长,现任中国金融四十人论坛高级研究员暨学术委员。\n\n\n长期从事货币可?#19968;弧?#22269;际收支、汇率政策、国?#39318;时?#27969;动等问题的研究。参与了1994年以来我国外汇体制?#27597;?#30340;重大方案设?#30130;?#24182;坚持理论联系实际、严谨治学的研究作风,撰写了大量工作报告和学术论文。\n\n\n2009 年 - 2015 年 4 月任国家外汇管理局国际收支司司长,2015 年 7 月任中国金融四十人论坛高级研究员。在 2010 年,2016 年和 2017 年分别出版了专著《中国先机》《汇率的本质》和《汇率的博弈》,完成了人民币汇率研究“三部曲”。\n\n","author_intro_rich_text":"

管涛

外汇管理局国际收支司前司长,现任中国金融四十人论坛高级研究员暨学术委员。

长期从事货币可?#19968;弧?#22269;际收支、汇率政策、国?#39318;时?#27969;动等问题的研究。参与了1994年以来我国外汇体制?#27597;?#30340;重大方案设?#30130;?#24182;坚持理论联系实际、严谨治学的研究作风,撰写了大量工作报告和学术论文。

2009 年 - 2015 年 4 月任国家外汇管理局国际收支司司长,2015 年 7 月任中国金融四十人论坛高级研究员。在 2010 年,2016 年和 2017 年分别出版了专著《中国先机》《汇率的本质》和《汇率的博弈》,完成了人民币汇率研究“三部曲”。

","author_short_intro":"国家外汇管理局国际收支司前司长,现中国金融四十人论坛高级研究员","display_name":"管涛","id":845818},"content_count":0,"display_time":1548672162,"id":1002578,"image":{"horizontal_image_uri":"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/59fd095c-1dea-4660-a7a3-925d4f0b76ac.jpg","vertical_image_uri":"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/ceb2c1ce-cb49-4584-8d44-4ced004f02ac.jpg"},"is_audio":false,"is_internal":false,"is_text":true,"is_video":true,"latest_article":{"content_short":"判断的数据 + 判断的逻辑","id":3481090,"title":"4.2 当前中国国际收支?#38382;品?#26512;","uri":"http://www.1740749.com/premium/articles/3481090?layout=wscn-layout"},"most_recent_content_time":1550717463,"product":{"bought_count":710,"discount_copywriting":"","discount_text":"","end_time_timestamp":0,"id":11353,"is_can_renewal":true,"is_multi_products":false,"is_paid":false,"min_product_price":19900,"name":"读懂人民币·管涛 | 大师课","origin_price":19900,"period":-1,"price":19900,"spu_id":11083,"weekly_bought_count":59},"sub_title":"逻辑重于结论,汇率的市场与政策分析","summary":"2019年开始, 《见闻大师课》将?#26377;?#32858;焦“底层思维”、“核心能力?#20445;?#20998;模块为用户打造投资知?#26029;低场!?#35835;懂人民币——逻辑重于结论,汇率的市场与政策分析》将带来汇率传导机制学习基础而实用的工具。\n\n\n?\n\n\n大师课主讲人:管涛\n\n\n国家外汇管理局国际收支司前司长,现任中国金融四十人论坛高级研究员暨学术委员。\n\n\n?\n\n汇率是政府和市场博弈的舞台,作为“后‘8.11’时代的大国汇率选择” 课题发起者,管涛是最能兼顾政策逻辑和市场思维的“官员型学者”。而此刻,无疑是重新思考人民币汇率政策,也是判断市场拐点的最关键时刻。\n\n\n——大师课组委会管涛推荐词\n\n\n?\n\n\n课程亮点:\n\n\n\n六大模块,20节以上课程,40个以上知识点(课表下拉详见?#28595;?#23558;获得?#20445;‐n\n\n兼顾基础与实战:梳理汇?#39318;?#21183;核心变量,总结中国22年汇改经验,建立外汇市场分析框架\n\n\n区别于其他相关课程,本专辑研究视角独特?#21644;?#26102;理解人民币汇率政策逻辑与市场逻辑,投资事半功倍!\n\n\n\n?\n\n\n如何学习:\n\n\n\n每个工作日,每天10-20分钟,视频+文本,集中线上学习\n\n课程结束后,【复盘】+【知识卡片】,提炼课?#35848;?#36135;,巩固知识\n\n加入专属微信群,参与更多外汇市场话题讨论……\n\n想要建立更完整的投资知识框架,获得更多福利,你应该订阅《见闻大师课-全年版》","summary_rich_text":"

2019年开始, 《见闻大师课》将?#26377;?#32858;焦“底层思维”、“核心能力?#20445;?#20998;模块为用户打造投资知?#26029;低场?strong>《读懂人民币——逻辑重于结论,汇率的市场与政策分析》将带来汇率传导机制学习基础而实用的工具。

?

大师课主讲人:管涛

国家外汇管理局国际收支司前司长,现任中国金融四十人论坛高级研究员暨学术委员。

?

汇率是政府和市场博弈的舞台,作为“后‘8.11’时代的大国汇率选择” 课题发起者,管涛是最能兼顾政策逻辑和市场思维的“官员型学者”。而此刻,无疑是重新思考人民币汇率政策,也是判断市场拐点的最关键时刻。

——大师课组委会管涛推荐词

?

课程亮点:

?

如何学习

?

","title":"读懂人民币·管涛 | 大师课","uri":"http://www.1740749.com/premium/topics/1002578"},"resource_type":"topic"},{"resource":{"author":{"author_intro":"陈晓优\n\n\n?#35835;?#21270;24小时?#25151;?#31243;主讲人,网名“用Python的交?#33258;薄保?#20262;敦卡斯商学院数理金融硕士,曾在数家大型量化私募基金担任量化交?#33258;?#21644;期权投资经理;\n\n\n全球排名第二的开源量化交易平台vn.py的创始人,基于?#24405;?#39537;动引擎的先进架构,vn.py平台支持CTA趋势交易策略、价差套利类策略、期权波动?#24335;?#26131;、低延时高频算法交易等各类复杂量化交易应用,目前已有超过300家国内外金融机构在实盘业务中使用。\n\n\n?\n\n","author_intro_rich_text":"

陈晓优

?#35835;?#21270;24小时?#25151;?#31243;主讲人,网名“用Python的交?#33258;薄保?#20262;敦卡斯商学院数理金融硕士,曾在数家大型量化私募基金担任量化交?#33258;?#21644;期权投资经理;

全球排名第二的开源量化交易平台vn.py的创始人,基于?#24405;?#39537;动引擎的先进架构,vn.py平台支持CTA趋势交易策略、价差套利类策略、期权波动?#24335;?#26131;、低延时高频算法交易等各类复杂量化交易应用,目前已有超过300家国内外金融机构在实盘业务中使用。

?

","author_short_intro":"全球排名第二的开源量化交易平台vn.py 创始人","display_name":"陈晓优","id":120000003908},"content_count":0,"display_time":-62135596800,"id":1002478,"image":{"horizontal_image_uri":"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/67c03665-ffbd-43f7-bf06-7c7f1b97c449.jpg","vertical_image_uri":"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/6c89e419-95e0-4c0d-bf50-b7f3edc88500.jpg"},"is_audio":false,"is_internal":false,"is_text":true,"is_video":true,"latest_article":{"content_short":"历史数据的工作包括数据获取、处理和保存,今天我们?#40644;?#21435;实现“每天定时自动?#30740;?#30340;远端数据同?#38477;?#26412;地数据库”的工具,这也是数据相关内容的最后一课","id":3481825,"title":"10【数据】历史数据服务的实操课","uri":"http://www.1740749.com/premium/articles/3481825?layout=wscn-layout"},"most_recent_content_time":1550727382,"product":{"bought_count":650,"discount_copywriting":"","discount_text":"","end_time_timestamp":0,"id":11236,"is_can_renewal":true,"is_multi_products":false,"is_paid":false,"min_product_price":19900,"name":"30堂实战?#38395;?#36890;量化交易","origin_price":19900,"period":-1,"price":19900,"spu_id":10896,"weekly_bought_count":57},"sub_title":"小白学量化从0-1直达中级","summary":"?#31350;?#31243;为《Quant 全实战进阶课》第一阶\n\n\n?\n\n\n学?#28595;?#26631;\n\n\n每周挤出完整的1小时,3-4个月,熟练运用海归策略跑起真实交易\n\n掌握多标的组合类CTA策略的开发、回测和实盘交易能力,并运用在各类资产市场。\n\n尤其对个?#36865;?#36164;者而?#35029;?#25104;功闯过这个关卡,就已经能够实现在自己的实盘投资中运用量化跑起自己的投资策略。\n\n\n\n\n\n?\n\n**\n\n好消息!\n\n**\n\n\n?\n\n\n购买?#31350;?#31243;,即\n\n赠送学前小课\n\n《投资场景下的Python入门15课》,让你们学到最硬核的,先跑起来!\n\n\n?\n\n\n(订阅后,工作人员将会在1~3个工作日内为您免费开通学前小课,赠阅?#34892;?#26399;为期一年,请在“app-我的-付?#35759;?#38405;-订阅列表”进行查看)\n\n\n\n有任何课程相关疑?#22763;?#20197;咨询助教小姐姐微信?#29275;?*\n\njwzhujiao2\n\n**\n\n\n\n\n\n?\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n请在购买专辑后认真收听【入学准备】& 【入学测试】,根据提示操作,并定位自己的起步点\n\n\n\n\n期待你有更多收获!","summary_rich_text":"

?#31350;?#31243;为《Quant 全实战进阶课》第一阶

?

学?#28595;?#26631;

?

好消息!

?

购买?#31350;?#31243;,即赠送学前小课《投资场景下的Python入门15课》,让你们学到最硬核的,先跑起来!

?

(订阅后,工作人员将会在1~3个工作日内为您免费开通学前小课,赠阅?#34892;?#26399;为期一年,请在“app-我的-付?#35759;?#38405;-订阅列表”进行查看)

* 有任何课程相关疑?#22763;?#20197;咨询助教小姐姐微信?#29275;?strong>jwzhujiao2

?

请在购买专辑后认真收听【入学准备】& 【入学测试】,根据提示操作,并定位自己的起步点

?

期待你有更多收获!

?

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?交易桌前看天下,付鹏?#36947;?#35780;财经?
这是一份从2017年3月开?#21450;?#38543;全年的投资指引,?#38431;?#35746;?#27169;?#25139;)
▲ 全年订阅 ?加入付鹏说专属交流圈儿?

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付鹏说:90年代的全球?#26102;?#27969;动(2):美国互联网泡沫的起因【248】

音频时长13分54秒,请合理安排学习时间

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本期内容

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>>本文仅限作者观点,点击上方视频收看!

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我们接着聊关于90年代的全球的?#26102;?#27969;动。

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它跟我们之前几期聊过的美国80年代的整个转型过程有密切的关系。在里根和老布什两届总统完成了?#38405;?#23545;外的调整之后,美国在去除旧的调整和转型的过程中,前半段已经基本上完成。

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在创造新的过程中,也就是从90年代开始,全球新兴产业信息技术的成熟成为了90年代全球?#26102;?#27969;动?#20998;?#30340;核心的目标。对日本的打压,说是贸易上进行的修正并不准确,更多的实际上是从全球?#26102;?#30340;流动上面进行了修正。日元的carry trading套息,大量的资金涌向美国,其实也要拥向一个核心的目标,?#27604;?#20102;这个核心的目标也就跟他(美国)的“新”是有关系的,也就是跟新兴产业信息技术的成熟是有关系的。

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从92年到93年,美国已经完成了对于之前“旧”的重组、投资,进入到一个新的阶段,一个生产效率更高的产业环境开始产生。

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之后,克林顿政府做了非常大的贡?#20303;?#20174;1993年开始,克林顿推出国家信息基础设施计划?#34903;?#21518;的电信法?#31119;?#20854;实放松了电信行业的监管,这些实际上使得之后互联网带来的新的商?#30340;?#24335;成为了?#26102;?#20027;要?#20998;?#30340;目标。?#27604;?#20102;,在美国的证券市场上,从这之后开始表现的也主要是来自于这一块,就是新兴产业信息技术的从?#27604;?#21040;泡沫的一个过程。

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之后我们看到包括汇率上的调整,产业结?#32929;?#30340;调整,去除企业的这些糟粕,通过市场化行为去除这些企业的糟粕,美国经历了之前的痛苦期和调整期之后,美国的产业可以迅速地在国际市场上具备充分的活力。加上前面我们讲的全球?#26102;?#30340;主要的流动,对外是包括日元在内的套利?#26102;?#30340;涌入,包括当时的利率环境,实际上都为95年之后美国股市开始的异常?#27604;?#20570;下了比较大的铺垫。

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而1993年之后,互联网从只是由简单的科学家和爱好者组成的实验室里开始逐步走出来,跟我们前面讲到的克林顿的国家信息基础设施建设的方案路线图实际上是有非常大的关系的。这样的话许多?#25509;?#37096;门的创新人才创造热情开始大规模地推动硅谷在内的这些创意中?#27169;?#36880;渐地成为了互联网的先驱。

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而之后96年的电信法案应该说是放开了市场的准入门槛,让任何人都可以进入到通讯业务,让通信业务在任何市场上都可以进行充分的竞争,解除了有线电视行业的管?#30130;?#25918;宽了广播公司的管?#30130;?#36825;些都给之后无论是从消费到运营到设备制造商?#27982;?#26174;的带来了一个巨大的红利的市场。

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这个阶段实际上像极了2009年前后的中国。不是说我们跟美国当年一样搞了互联网信息技术,只是说过程中带来的疯狂的风投,从前期的?#23637;?#24182;购合并,到后面风投投资的疯狂,初创?#25512;?#19994;的估值到一些非理性状态,中国2009年到2014年这一段跟美国当年是有非常大的相似性的。都是提出万众创业万众创新,都是鼓励资金涌入到风险投资领域,都是希望能够通过?#26102;?#24066;场的力量去完成对于创新的支持,在政策的推动下,疯狂地为一些初创公司进行风险投资的融资。?#26102;?#30340;过剩导致投资者疯狂的?#31908;蹈?#31181;技术类的故事。

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虽然创新类的技术从96年开始以后一直到现在,都是美国过去20年主导的一个核?#27169;?#20294;是这并不意味着它其中不存在巨大的泡沫。在美国当时的过程中,无数的资金开?#23478;?#20026;有?#26102;?#24066;场可以带来这样的暴利,疯狂的资产价值的投机浪潮非常的明显,投资者不考虑太多,疯狂的为只要带互联网概念、乃至互联网字的,只要带“.com”都可以进行融资。

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| 大师课·刘煜辉问答","slot_title":"","content_short":"刘煜辉大师课问答","content_preview":"

刘煜辉大师课问答

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  1. 您说现在中国处于滞胀阶段,其中最明显的就是大宗商品价格过高。可是根据货币信用模?#20572;?#20013;国是在衰?#31169;?#27573;,利率和信用都不高。这两个判断有冲突。想问问您如何定义通?#20572;?#20026;什么两个判断会有冲突?
  2. \n
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通胀 通缩或者滞胀 都是经济机理,你得同时关注总需求和供给侧。滞胀是一种经济机理。经济下行周期的通?#20572;?#26681;子在供给侧,供给侧受到?#25345;?#21147;量的不断打击而下坠(长期增长动能受损),而货币信用代表的总需求被既?#32654;?#30410;所顶住,从而向下撕裂出越来越大的缺口,形成难以遏制的顽固的通胀预期。

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?

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  1. 老师好,因基础?#35805;悖?#26377;一些知识听不明白,要看些什么书或者学些什么知识才能更好的理解这大师课内容?
  2. \n
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什么都看,经济、政治、社会、东西方历史、金融货币,都倒入?#36824;?#29038;。

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推荐:《债务与魔鬼》、《国家的兴衰》、《万历十五年》、《枪炮、病菌和钢铁》

","is_priced":true,"is_trial":false,"is_paid":false,"comment_disabled":false,"uri":"http://www.1740749.com/premium/articles/3445211?layout=wscn-layout","vip_uri":"","comment_count":0,"is_favourite":false,"pageviews":0,"image_uri":"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/cbba715d-1218-4e15-a3ef-806c3d0adc76.jpg","use_default_image":false,"source_name":"","source_uri":"","display_time":1543401568,"author":null,"categories":null,"platforms":["wscn-platform"],"related_topics":null,"related_themes":null,"unshow_content_short":false,"is_in_vip_privilege":false,"vip_type":""},"resource_type":"article","theme":{"categories":[{"property_key":"renwuzhuanlan","property_name":"专栏"},{"property_key":"renwuzhuanlanhongguan","property_name":"人物专栏-宏观"}],"content_count":21,"description":"","fixed_follower_count":10000,"follower_count":18598,"id":1005837,"image_uri":"https://dn-wscn-avatar.qbox.me/fe/ba/84/qq-20161028111101.jpg","image_url":"https://dn-wscn-avatar.qbox.me/fe/ba/84/qq-20161028111101.jpg","is_followed":false,"is_priced":false,"is_push":false,"status":"normal","theme_type":"normal","title":"刘煜辉","today_update_count":0,"updated_at":1543401568,"uri":"http://www.1740749.com/themes/1005837","url":"http://www.1740749.com/themes/1005837","wits_kol_id":0,"wits_kol_name":""}},{"resource":{"id":3415716,"title":"【深度复盘2】资产波动与周期轮动的底层逻辑——利率周期与传导的分析框架","slot_title":"","content_short":"从中国利率体系?#21019;?#31867;资产配置,利率周期的轮动对于资产配置是真正把握其背后规律的底层密码!","content_preview":"

《十年利率心法》深度复盘

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利率:金融市场传导的底层逻辑密码

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金融市场的瞬息万变、资产价格大幅波动,利率就是其底层传导的逻辑链条,是大类资产轮动的核心驱动能力。

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为什么金融市场格外关注央行的货币政策动向?#20426;?#21152;息缩表”的分析评论成为2018年不绝于耳的金融讨论话题。为什么美联储的议息会议会牵动全球市场投资者的神经?

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为什么近期美债收益率的迅速上行,带来了全球金融市场的股债双?#20445;?#20840;球资产价格波动率的迅速上行?一时之间,金融市场风险迅速传导,资产价格起伏震?#30784;?/p>\n

这背后的底层密码就是利率的变化与传导,国债收益率的变化与传导。

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利率的变化对于现代金融市场是真正牵一发而动全身的金融变量。

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利率周期的轮动对于大类资产配置是真正把握其背后规律的底层密码。

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《十年利率心法》的逻辑框架

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资产周期轮动的底层逻辑——?#29992;?#26519;时钟到货币信用

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《十年利率心法》可以分为三大部分,六大章节,章节逻辑上有着完整而严谨的体系设?#30130;?#23618;层递进,环环相扣,相信完整学习的你能够体会其中深意。

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利率体系是基础,资产配置是实践,利率周期的起伏是驱动大类资产轮动的核心驱动力,?#21069;?#25569;不同周期下投资机遇的密码。

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《十年利率体系》的上半部分着眼于中国利率体系的基础知识,通过详?#20184;?#23436;整的介绍,旨在帮助投资者建立一套利率的综合分析框架

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《十年利率体系》的下半部分则着眼于资产轮动和资产配置,如果说利率体系理论基础,那么资产配置就是投资实践

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如何把握不同周期下的最优投资配置机会,提高资产配置的收益和效率,相信是每一位市场投资人最为关心的核心议题!

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– 双方参加开幕式的主要人员包括:中国人民银行行长易纲,中国驻美大使崔天凯,中央财办副主任、财政部副部长廖?#28023;?#22806;交部副部长郑泽光,农业农村部副部长韩俊,商务部副部长兼国际贸易?#27010;?#21103;代表王受?#27169;?#22269;家发展?#27597;?#22996;秘书长?#31908;粒?#32654;国商务部长罗斯,白宫国家经济委员会主任库德洛,总统贸易和制造业政策助理、白宫国家贸易委员会主?#25991;賞呗蓿?#32654;国驻华大使布兰斯塔德,副贸易代表格里什,商务部副部长卡普?#36857;?#36152;易代表办公室首席农业?#27010;?#20195;表多德,农业部副部长麦金尼等。

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